Republicans
have thrown everything they have at stopping President Obama’s agenda. It seems obvious that there is only one thing
we can do to fix this stalemate: we HAVE to elect more Democrats and win back
the Senate.
2014 represents a great opportunity for Republicans. In 2014, Republicans will have 14 US Senate seats to
defend. Thirteen of the 14
states were won by double digits in 2008 (a Democratic sweep year), and all
states were won by both John McCain in 2008 and Mitt
Romney in
2012, except for Maine. On the upside for the GOP minority, all of these seats
should be safe. Republicans have
reason to be optimistic about the way the 2014 Senate races are shaping up around the
country. They need to recapture six seats in seven states that GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney carried.
Republicans can capture
the Senate without winning a single seat in Obama states. Six Democratic incumbents
are retiring, and only two are doing so from safe Democratic states. Retirements in South Dakota, Iowa, Montana
and West Virginia all pose risks for Democrats. Republicans will be competitive in
Democratic open seats if they recruit top-quality candidates. Just two Republicans are retiring — Sen.
Saxby Chambliss of Georgia and Sen.
Mike Johanns of Nebraska. Both are vacating states that went for
Romney and seem likely to elect Republicans, barring the unexpected.
In Montana, Democrats are waiting
to see whether popular incumbent Gov. Brian Schweitzer will jump into the Senate race, which could seriously damage GOP hopes of grabbing that seat.
In South Dakota, Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson’s decision to step down at the
end of his current term has created an opening for either former Republican
Gov. Mike Rounds, who has declared his candidacy, or second-term GOP Rep.
Kristi L Noem, who is flirting with a bid.
Whoever emerges as the GOP nominee
is thought to have the upper hand after former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin opted out of the race, leaving
long-shot Rick Welland, , a former aide to retired Sen. Tom Daschle, as the
likely Democratic nominee.
In WV, Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, a
terrific campaigner, is running and currently holding a lead. She will have to face a primary opponent from
her ideological right. A series of
big-name Democrats have said no, leaving the party without a clear next step in
terms of a candidate.
“The party’s problem is
getting the right people to run. “Their
recruiting has gone poorly so far in places like Colorado, Iowa, Michigan,
Minnesota, New Hampshire and Virginia.
So, despite having a big map to play offense on, in reality the
Republican road appears to be narrowing to the red presidential states: Alaska,
Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota and West Virginia.”
~ Kyle Kondik, University of Virginia Center For Politics
Part of the challenge is
to find new faces the party can turn to as it continues to shed the
image it had during the Bush administration and to meld tea-party
enthusiasm with candidates who bring campaign experience. To
win, Republicans must also offer a compelling and
substantive agenda for America's economy, jobs, health care and fiscal
situation that attract discerning independents (and the occasional disgruntled
Democrats) on whom victory will depend.
The quality of GOP campaigns will matter as well. Republicans must go
toe-to-toe with Democrats on ObamaCare, spending, deficits, the president's
social agenda and, where appropriate, their opponent's character. But even done
effectively, this won't be enough.
There are 34 U.S. Senate seats up
for election in 2014. Of those seats, 14 are currently held by Republicans and
20 are held by Democrats.
State Incumbent
1. AK Mark
Begich - D
2. AL Jeff
Sessions – R
3. AR Mark
Pryor – D
4. CO Mark
Udall – D
5. DE Chris
Coons – D
6. GA Saxby
Chambliss – R Retiring
7. HI Brian
Schatz – D
8. IA Tom
Harkin – D Retiring
9. ID Jim
Risch – R
10.
IL Dick Durbin – D
11.
KS Pat Roberts – R
12.
KY Mitch McConnell – R
13.
LA Mary Landrieu – D
14.
MA William Cowan – D
15.
ME Susan Collins – R
16.
MI Carl Levin – D Retiring
17.
MN Al Franken – D
18.
MS Thad Cochran – R
19.
MT Max Baucus – D Retiring
20.
NC Kay Hagan – D
21.
NE Mike Johanns – R Retiring
22.
NH Jeanne Shaheen – D
23.
NJ Jeff
Chiesa - R Retiring
24.
NJ Frank
Lautenberg Died
25.
NM Tom
Udall – D
26.
OK Jim
Inhofe – R
27.
OR Jeff Merkley
– D
28.
RI Jack
Reed – D
29.
SC Lindsey
Graham – R
30.
SD Tim
Johnson – D Retiring
31.
TN Lamar
Alexsnder – R
32.
TX John
Cornyn – R
33.
VA Mark
Warner – D
34.
WV Jay
Rockefeller - D Retiring
35.
WY Mike Enzi
– R
* Alabama - Jeff Sessions would be 67 if he runs for re-election.
He won by a healthy 26-point margin in 2008.
*Colorado - The headaches continue in Colorado, where the GOP remains without a challenger to Sen. Mark Udall after Rep.
Cory Gardner announced this week that he would not run against the vulnerable
Democrat.
* Georgia – Saxby Chambliss
has opted against running in 2014. In the 2008 general election (with Obama on
the ballot), Chambliss topped his Democratic opponent by just 3 points. Neither
candidate hit 50%, and in Georgia that means there is a runoff election. In the
runoff election held just a month later and without Obama on the ballot,
Chambliss won by a comfortable 15-point margin. Until a potential field starts
to shape up, this seat will stay in the GOP column. Georgia will have a big primary but should remain
Republican unless a candidate ill-suited for the general election sneaks
through the primary.
* Idaho – Jim Risch won by 24-points in 2008 and announced he is
running for re-election.
* Kansas – Pat Roberts easily won with 60% of the vote in his
last outing and will be safe in this deep red state.
* Kentucky – Mitch McConnell was the lone single-digit victor in
2008, winning by 6-points. But like in Georgia that year, Obama gave Kentucky
Democrats a stronger-than-usual boost in votes. McConnell should see a more
favorable mid-term electorate. Mitch McConnell
understands that while Kentucky is a Republican presidential stronghold, every
state capital office but one is occupied by a Democrat. That's why he's raised
more money than any other senator up in 2014.
*Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu hails from a storied political family, but her state's voters
chose Mr. Romney by 17.2 points. Republicans are coalescing behind Rep. Bill
Cassidy, who is off to an impressive start.
*Maine – Susan Collins stated in March 2013 she planned on
running for another term. While Republicans cheered when her colleague Olympia
Snowe retired, that seat immediately became uncompetitive for Republicans. If
the GOP wants to win the Senate, Snow will likely be a key factor. Only one Republican seat is in a state (Maine)
that President Obama won by more than 10%.
Maine's Susan Collins is the only GOP incumbent running in an Obama
state, but she's personally popular and an effective campaigner.
* Mississippi – Thad Cochran was first elected in 1978 and he
has won every election since by at least 20 points. He will be 76 if he decides
to run again in 2014, but either way the seat should be safely Republican.
* Nebraska – Ben Sasse, a former George W Bush administration official the GOP may turn to in hopes of offering voters
a fresh face who could keep the seat in its corner. Mr. Sasse, said he wants to stop the “devastating
impact Obamacare implementation will have on Nebraska families and small
businesses. Those who know him seem
impressed, but he is largely unknown so there are many opportunities for his
candidacy to crash and burn.” ~ John Hibbing, a political-science professor at
the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
*New Hampshire, where former Massachusetts Sen. Scott
Brown may challenge freshman Democrat Jeanne Shaheen. He's a ninth generation
Granite Stater; she was born in Missouri.
Seeking a challenger to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, the GOP is eyeing former Massachusetts Sen.
Scott P. Brown.
*North Carolina, Several Republicans, including
the speaker of the state house and the state senate majority leader, could run
against freshman Sen. Kay Hagan. North Carolinians elected a GOP governor and
big GOP legislative majorities last year.
*New Jersey, Newark Mayor Cory Booker formally announced he's in the race to finish the U.S. Senate
term of the late Frank Lautenberg.
* Oklahoma – Jim Inhofe has won 3 straight elections with
exactly 57% of the vote. But he will be 80 in 2014. He is safe if he runs
again, and the GOP has a number of options if he retires.
* South Carolina
– Lindsey Graham won by 16-points in 2008. His name often pops up as a target
for a GOP primary challenge given his past and on illegal immigration, climate
change, and his role in the “gang of 14” that helped prevent conservative
nominees from being nominated to various judicial benches.
* South Carolina
Special Election – When Jim DeMint retired to head the Heritage Foundation,
Governor Nikki Haley appointed Tim Scott to the seat. With so many seats to
defend themselves, this will probably not be a major target for Democrats.
* Tennessee – Lamar Alexander has announced he will run for
re-election after winning by a hefty 32-point margin in 2008.
* Texas – John Cornyn is serving in his second term and should
be safe for the GOP whether he runs or not. The Democrats view Julian Castro as their future in Texas and may push him towards a run either
here or in the race for Governor. But Mayor Julián Castro of San Antonio
has said he doesn’t think 2014 is the right year for a Democrat.
* Wyoming – Mike Enzi won by 52 points in 2008 and would be a
lock should he run again. He would be 70. If he were to retire, Liz Cheney
recently moved to Washington and might be interested in competing for the seat.
